- US 100 index drops, reversing the August rally
- Nvidia woes keep sentiment negative
- Momentum indicators are turning bearish
The US 100 cash index is in the red again today, trading back below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and having surrendered half of its August gains. Nvidia’s underperformance is keeping the index under pressure with the market preparing for this week’s key US labour market data releases and counting down to the September 18 Fed meeting.
The momentum indicators are gradually turning bearish. More specifically, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is edging higher and thus signalling a strengthening bearish trend in the US 100 index. Interestingly, the RSI has dropped below its midpoint for the first time since August 13. More importantly, the stochastic oscillator is trading lower, below its overbought territory. Should this move pick up pace, it would be seen as a very strong bearish signal.
If the bears remain confident, they could try to keep the US 100 index below the 100-day SMA and gradually push it towards the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of the November 22, 2021 – October 13, 2022 downtrend at 18,491. If successful, they could then have a go at testing the support set by the 18,041-18,190 range.
On the flip side, the bulls are desperately trying to regain control and gradually push the US 100 index above both the 100- and 50-day SMAs at 19,017 and 19,449 respectively. They could then test the resistance set by the July 11, 2024 trendline with the next plausible target being the 20,683-20,772 area.
To sum up, momentum has turned negative in the US 100 index but in order to achieve a lower low the bears have to overcome a series of key support levels.
Source by: XM Global