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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD repowers optimism with prod above SMAs
AUDUSD has re-established its neutral-to-bullish demeanour after nudging back above the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), and is currently tackling the upper Bollinger band around 0.7838 - just shy of the 0.7848 barrier. The bullish 100- and 200-day SMAs are guarding the positive structure, while the 100-day SMA and the more static 50-day SMA have provided the price with fresh footing to improve.
Although the short-term oscillators are presently favouring the upside, they are indicating a phase where vital positive momentum is slightly weak. The MACD, not too far above zero, is strengthening above its red trigger line, while the RSI is maintaining a fairly steady growth in the bullish region. The stochastic oscillator has lost some of its bullish charge, and this is suggesting that positive price action could take a minor hit.
If buying interest increases, immediate resistance may arise from the upper Bollinger band at 0.7838 and the adjacent high of 0.7848. Overstepping this could inspire buyers to head for a retest of the near 37-month peak of 0.8006. Should buyers retain control and conquer the multi-year top, the bulls could hit the 0.8094 barrier, which happens to be the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the down leg from 0.7413 until 0.6690. Another jolt higher could then meet resistance in the proximity of 0.8135-0.8163, formed between the corresponding January 2018 and May 2015 highs.
Should the pair begin to surrender its positive bearing, initial tough downside constraints could develop from the converged averages and the mid-Bollinger band, specifically in the zone from 0.7723-0.7698. Diving past this boundary may fuel negative pressures, steering the pair for the base of 0.7531-0.7600, fortified with the lower Bollinger band. If this border fails to dismiss a deeper descent, the support zone of 0.7372-0.7461 could then challenge sellers’ efforts to depreciate the pair.
Summarizing, in order for AUDUSD to retain a progressing neutral-to-bullish outlook, the price would need to persist above the SMAs and the foundation of 0.7531-0.7600.