- SNB to cut rates as USDCHF holds within range
- RBA to hold steady with AUDUSD standing near 9-month high
- US core PCE index in the spotlight after Fed decision; EURUSD retreats to 1.1100
SNB interest rate decision –> USDCHF
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will announce its policy decision on Thursday, following the announcements made by major central banks last week. There is considerable uncertainty about the size of the rate cut. Currently, there is a 61% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction, while the remaining probabilities point to a 50-bps move. At the start of August, the Swiss franc surged against the US dollar and the euro, fueling expectations of a greater cut.
Technically, USDCHF is currently developing within a narrow range, with resistance at 0.8540 and support at 0.8400. The pair posted a bearish spike at the beginning of September, recording a new nine-month low of 0.8370. If the pressure remains on the downside, the pair may challenge the December 2023 trough at 0.8330. On the other hand, a climb above 0.8540 and the short-term downtrend line could switch the bias to slightly positive, meeting the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.8610.
RBA interest rate decision –> AUDUSD
Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its decision on Tuesday. The RBA has not yet initiated the rate-cutting phase and may delay it for the seventh consecutive meeting, maintaining interest rates at 4.35% next week. Nevertheless, a shift in policymakers’ rhetoric regarding the upside risks to inflation could put pressure on the Australian currency. Still, there is no expectation of a dramatic shift in policy until the November meeting, when there might be an update to economic forecasts.
AUDUSD is meeting the previous nine-month high of 0.6840 that posted on Thursday, continuing the medium-term upward tendency. Over the last couple of weeks, the rebound from the 200-day SMA around 0.6620 added more than 3%, with the next resistance coming from 0.6870-0.6900. On the flip side, a drop below the 0.6765 support may pave the way for the 20- and 50-day SMAs at 0.6745 and 0.6670, respectively.
US PCE inflation –> EURUSD
On Friday, the PCE inflation, personal income, and consumption figures will be released. The headline PCE index in July was 2.5% and core PCE was 2.6% and they are predicted to tick down to 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively. Both appear flat above the Fed’s 2% target. However, the 6-month annualized readings showed a steep dip in July, suggesting the PCE indicators will resume their downturn.EURUSD is declining somewhat with the next major obstacle coming from the 1.1100 round number, where the 20-day SMA lies. A slip below could pave the way for the 1.1000 psychological mark, which overlaps with the 50-day SMA. Alternatively, a rise above the previous highs of 1.1180 and the 13-month peak of 1.1200 could add some optimism for a test of the July 2023 peak at 1.1275.
Source by: XM Global