EURJPY moves laterally as the ECB rate decision approaches
- EURJPY eases into range-bound trading after a 15-year high
- The short-term outlook is neutral, but will the bears return?
- The ECB policy announcement is scheduled for Thursday at 12:15 GMT
EURJPY has been moving back and forth between its 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) following the pullback from a 15-year high of 159.75.
The short-term signals are mixed as the RSI hovers around its 50-neutral mark while the stochastic oscillator trends higher. In the weekly chart, though, the indicators have peaked in the overbought region and are reversing south, reflecting a bearish bias.
Support is currently provided around the 50-day SMA at 157.13. At the same time, slightly lower, the ascending trendline drawn from the March lows at 156.00 could be the last opportunity for a rebound before selling pressure intensifies towards the 154.50 zone. The latter overlaps with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 137.37-159.75 uptrend. If the bears breach that floor, too, the 153.00 round level could calm downside pressures ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci mark of 151.20.
Should the bulls claim the 20-day SMA at 158.20, all eyes would turn to the short-term resistance line at 160.00. Running higher, the pair could enter a new consolidation phase within the 161.35-162.55 region, where the price stalled at the end of August 2008 and peaked in October 1998. Another success might lift the price to the 2023 resistance line at 164.80-165.00.
In brief, EURJPY lacks direction in the short-term picture, awaiting fresh volatility below 156.00 or above 160.00.