- Fed expectations and US election affect sentiment
- Euro remains on the back foot against the dollar
- PBoC announces a surprise rate cut
- Gold suffers, aussie and kiwi losses pile up
Stocks’ weakness intensifies
Stocks are under severe pressure as the main US equity indices recorded yesterday their worst daily performance since late-2022. Considering the fact that yesterday’s US PMI surveys were mixed, and therefore not the trigger for this move, the cause of the continued weakness in equities runs deep. Technology stocks led the correction as the market is increasingly nervous about the much-expected Fed rate cut and the US presidential election.
Technology stocks led the correction as the market is increasingly nervous about the much-expected Fed rate cut and the US presidential election.
Having said that, the US calendar is rather busy today with the release of the preliminary GDP print for the second quarter of 2024 and the June durable goods orders report. A strong set of figures would most likely eliminate the small chances of a dovish shift at next week’s Fed gathering, but the market will probably continue to fully price in a September rate cut.
US Presidential race hots up
The US Presidential election continues to dominate newswires as the rhetoric from both candidates is expected to become more heated. VP Kamala Harris is enjoying a significant inflow of funds as the first polls appear to favour her. There is still a question mark about former President Obama’s role in the current campaign with analysts highlighting that a public declaration of support in favour of Harris could prove pivotal for the outcome of the November contest.
Dollar benefits from euro weakness
In the meantime, the euro remains on the back foot against the US dollar as recent data have been weak in the euro area. This situation plays into the hands of the ECB doves who have been openly supportive of the current market pricing of two more rate cuts in 2024. Next week’s preliminary inflation report could go a long way towards convincing the stubborn hawks about the necessity of another rate cut if inflation manages to produce a downside surprise.
Next week’s preliminary inflation report could go a long way towards convincing the stubborn ECB hawks about the necessity of another rate cut
BoC announces back-to-back rate cuts
The Bank of Canada confirmed expectations for a second consecutive rate cut. The expected moderation of inflationary pressures combined with a weaker economic outlook and a softer labour market allowed Governor Macklem et al to announce another rate cut.
Considering their view that in the US the anticipated economic slowdown is materializing and inflation is possibly resuming its downward path, the BoC has kept the door open for more action down the line. The loonie remains under pressure with the 2024 low at 1.3845 per US dollar being around the corner.
China surprises with another rate cut
The PBoC surprised during the Asian session with a 20bps cut to the MLF rate following Monday’s LPR 10bps rate cut. The MLF is the benchmark rate that banks can use to borrow funds from the PBoC for periods up to 1 year. These announcements could be part of the plan agreed at the recent plenary session meeting of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, but the market is clearly worried whether these actions can successfully treat the housing sector issues.
The PBoC surprised during the Asian session with a 20bps cut to the MLF rate
In the meantime, gold’s retreat continues, erasing rather quickly the mid-July rally, and bitcoin is hovering around the $64k market. But the Aussie and the Kiwi continue to suffer, with the former completing nine consecutive red candles, the longest negative streak since August 2019.
Source by: XM Global